Snow

In a week bookended by the customary fixation with the Fed Chair’s tone and tie choice in front of a wide-eyed Senate Banking Committee, and a whistle-through-the-teeth collapse in some mid-tier US banks; the UK enjoyed a polar blast, delighting schoolchildren and regional news presenters in box-fresh RAB jackets alike. With the country shivering under a grave yellow ‘weather warning’, the National Grid quietly plugged the coal fired power lead back in. Hmm. The UK, like Germany, has made massive investment in wind power over the past two decades, which works a treat in high-summer, but it’s starkly apparent that when the rubber hits the road, when it is needed most, supply can go AWOL. The re-working of the energy stack is a proper challenge, more so with news this week that at a big-ticket industry gathering of oil executives, the chat was all about the stagnation of US shale. Fields are mature. Depletion rates are higher than expected. ‘The world is going back to a world we had in the 70s and 80s’ croaked Ryan Lance, CEO of ConcoPhilips in a ruddy faced roundtable. US shale growth has been the swing producer in recent years. With production set to fall, it leaves OPEC to pick up all the aces. More steamy geopolitics await. Whilst politicians throw net-zero ambitions around like confetti, it’s fast becoming apparent that there is no plan to get there. None. A report this week, said as much. The UK’s Climate Change Committee thumped the table accusing the current government of being ‘asleep at the wheel’. More money is needed. For a government wheezing under a pile of post-GFC and pandemic induced debt, it’s money that might just need another money tree. Taxes have already been sweated. Spending cuts remain politically unpalatable. In 2018 the Netherlands did a study into how it was going to achieve ‘climate-neutral’ status from wind and solar and EVs. It suggested, with a splash of cold water in the face, that there is possibly insufficient global supply of some metals. And this was just for the Netherlands. Population circa 20m. From copper, to nickel and zinc, and rare earth metals, there is not enough. And what about steel. Often overlooked, a report by the clever people at McKinsey set out the ubiquitous and substantial use of steel in every large scale power source. Steel is made from iron ore. Lots and lots of iron ore. Those diesel fired diggers are going to be busy for years yet, and those politicians are setting themselves up for a cold bath. And possibly – as provocative as it sounds – one whopper of a U-turn. Stay warm.