Disco

There’s always a risk writing missives on days when the political dance floor is as sweaty as it is and the arc of history is being ruffled by Fox News, but then modern life, agog as it is with TikTok videos and processed food, perhaps needs the occasional thrill. Let the voting begin. That a result is unlikely for days if not weeks, once the lawyers get involved, need not matter for now, but either way, the world awaits: slack jawed, scrolling bot-riddled social media, Doritos close to hand. Red or blue. More debt or more debt. And that’s the thing. Perhaps it doesn’t really matter who wins, either way, the fact that interest payments on all the debt is on course to overtake discretionary spending is a fact worth holding on to. Discretionary spending is basically everything bar social security and Medicaid, and runs to over 800 line items in the federal accounts. Things like Veterans Health Administration, operations and maintenance of several military branches, salaries at the FBI, the disaster relief fund of FEMA, and the like. The list goes on. On and on. Stumble across the website of the Congressional Budget Office and there’s a even a nice chart to bring it all to life. And the interest expense not going to stop going up, whoever wins the election. According to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model, total debt will go up an eye-popping $4.4 trillion under Harris, and spine tingling $9.3 trillion under a Trump led-regime. And that’s off the current baseline which is itself, running off some pretty optimistic assumptions. So what’s the end game, the children ask, apart from all the crowding out of spending on lots of things that really matter? More borrowing, more money printing. More debt. More can kicking. “Just smile at the camera. CHEESE!” When the economy can no longer grow as fast as the debt and interest expense do, the DJ pulls the plug and goes home. History is somewhat explicit. There are no taxis. And it’s a long walk back to the ranch.